Why We Absolutely Suck at Predicting How We’re Going to Feel
Ever been absolutely sure that something would make you happy, only to find that… it didn’t? Or thought that something would be devastating, only to handle it way better than expected?
Welcome to the world of hedonic prediction—where we all think we’re fortune tellers, yet somehow still manage to be wrong most of the time.
Wait… What’s Hedonic Prediction?
Hedonic prediction is our ability (or rather, our inability) to accurately predict how future events will make us feel. We assume that certain circumstances will generate specific emotions—winning the lottery will make me happy forever; losing my job will destroy me; getting married will complete me—but in reality, we’re shockingly bad at getting it right.
This becomes crystal clear when you look at real-life examples…
The Lottery and the Cancer Diagnosis
Let’s play a quick game of “Which One Would You Choose?”
Option A: You win the lottery—millions of dollars, financial freedom, the ability to buy whatever you want.
Option B: You get a cancer diagnosis—hospital visits, uncertainty, and a medical journey you never asked for.
Feels like a no-brainer, right? Lottery = happiness. Cancer = misery.
And yet… reality doesn’t always match that logic.
We’ve all heard stories of people who win the lottery and say, “Winning the lottery ruined my life.” They blow through the money, relationships fall apart, distant relatives suddenly need "loans," and before they know it, they’re more stressed than ever.
Then, on the flip side, there are people who face life-threatening illnesses and say things like, “Getting cancer was the best thing that ever happened to me.” They find new meaning in life, strengthen relationships, and live with more clarity and gratitude than ever before.
What’s going on here?
The Great Misunderstanding About Feelings
Most of us assume that certain events cause certain emotions.
Winning the lottery = happiness.
Losing your job = devastation.
Falling in love = bliss.
Getting older = dread.
It all seems so obvious… except for the tiny little detail that it’s not true.
Because if it were true—if circumstances had the power to dictate emotions—then every lottery winner would be euphoric forever, and every cancer patient would be miserable. But that’s not how it works, is it?
That’s because our feelings don’t come from what happens to us. They come from the thoughts we have in the moment about what happens to us.
Why We’re So Bad at Predicting How We’ll Feel
Before something happens, we imagine it through a filter of our current thinking. If you’re having a rough day and someone asks, “How would you feel if you won the lottery?” you might say, “Amazing! That would fix everything!” But if you’re feeling peaceful and content, you might say, “It’d be nice, but money doesn’t really bring happiness.”
Same event. Different thought. Different predicted feeling.
Now, fast-forward to the actual moment when something happens. You aren’t experiencing the event itself—you’re experiencing your thoughts about it in real time. And those thoughts aren’t fixed. They change, shift, and surprise you.
That’s why some lottery winners spiral into stress, and some cancer patients find unexpected joy. It’s also why…
You’ve had days when something objectively bad happened, but you were surprisingly okay.
You’ve had moments where something great happened, but you still felt kind of “meh.”
You look back at things you thought would be amazing (that dream job, that new house, that relationship) and realize… they didn’t quite deliver the lasting happiness you imagined.
This is why we suck at hedonic prediction. Because we’re trying to predict a future feeling without realizing that future feelings come from future thoughts—thoughts we haven’t had yet.
So… Now What?
Here’s the good news: Seeing this clearly means we don’t have to exhaust ourselves trying to control, plan, and engineer the “perfect” future in order to secure happiness.
Your well-being isn’t hiding in some future event. It’s not waiting for the right relationship, the right job, the right bank balance, or the right set of life circumstances to finally appear.
Your well-being is already within you. It always has been. And the only thing that ever covers it up is temporary, shifting thought.
So, the next time your mind starts running its “I’ll be happy when…” predictions, just smile and remember: You’re a terrible fortune teller. And that’s actually great news.